Nebraska Horse Racing's Death Wish

Last Saturday night, I took in the races at Omaha's Horsemen's Park. It's a fairly nice facility (as long as you ignore the junkyard just to the south), and with only a couple of weekends of racing, generates a bit of the buzz of the glory years of Ak-Sar-Ben. As I approached the track, I chuckled at the nerve of the folks posting signs in front promoting yet another attempt to bring casinos to Nebraska. I mentioned to my wife that I was surprised to see that at Horsemen's Park, considering how well THAT worked in Iowa.

Once I got inside the entrance gates, I immediately was accosted by the petition signers, and realized that it was actually the horsemen promoting this. Sure enough, the idea is that by bringing slot machines into Nebraska, the funds raised could be invested in horse racing.  That's what they are saying.

Of course, that's what they said 25 years ago in Iowa.  Once some communities had gambling, others wanted it. The competition forced the tracks to invest more money to keep their casino side up-to-date, meaning there was less money for racing. Then the Vegas gambling interests bought the casinos, and the tracks became more of a sidelight. And then, Vegas pulled the plug on the races.

In recent years, you only had to go to the Horseshoe Casino next to the track to see the difference in appeal. The packed slot rooms stood in sharp contrast to the abandoned racing clubhouse. In the end, the slot machines that were once seen as Bluffs Run’s salvation helped spur its demise.

“Slot machines pretty much killed it,’’ said David Steinbach of Omaha, a fan at Bluffs Run from day one.

From a short-term business perspective, I kind of see the horsemen's point. Get the lucrative short term profits of a casino.  And then, cash out when Vegas buys them out.  But don't kid yourself that it'll "save" horse racing, because it won't.

If it passes, it'll start with casinos at tracks in Omaha, Lincoln, Columbus, Grand Island and South Sioux City.  But then, Norfolk, Kearney and North Platte will complain and say "what about us?"  So they'll get casinos, but without tracks.  Then Sarpy County will demand one.  Competition between the casinos will increase, and the horse tracks will become less of a priority.

And then a burden.

And then they'll be gone.  Just like in Iowa.

Casinos won't save horse racing; they can't save racing. Casinos will kill racing.

So What Does the "Art Briles For Nebraska Guy" Think NOW?

Back in December 2014, I was "that guy" that suggested Art Briles to be the successor to Bo Pelini as Nebraska's next football coach. Today, Briles was fired by Baylor, but it wasn't for any lack of success on the field.  No, it was the misbehaviors of his players and, more importantly, the lack of concern, if not complete white-washing, with the problem by the entire Baylor administration.

Was I wrong about Briles? Yes.  But truth be told, nobody knew anything about these problems until this spring.  Am I guilty of being ignorant of the situation?  Yes, but everybody was ignorant of the situation.

For what it's worth, yes I'm glad that glad that Briles wasn't considered for the Nebraska job. I don't believe that Nebraska would have had the chance to fully vet Briles, as Briles didn't want to seem disloyal to Baylor.  He wasn't interested in interviewing at that time, but would consider an offer. That was the story when he briefly discussed the opening in Austin at Texas.

But was that because he knew of the skeletons in his closet in Baylor?  You have to wonder now.

X's & O's - Or Jimmies & Joes? The Eternal Debate Goes On

The undercard for last weekend's NFL Draft had to be between the Recruitniks and the anti-Recruitniks, each trying to use the results of the draft to validate their point.  SB Nation's Bud Elliott played with his Photoshop to toot his own horn.

Made a graphic pic.twitter.com/qtnSdph8nO

— SB Nation Recruiting (@SBNRecruiting) April 29, 2016

Though to be honest, not all was quite lining up the recruitniks way.

More 2-star/unrated prospects just got drafted in the first round than 5-stars...and that’s somehow a triumph for star ratings? Huh?

— Samuel McKewon (@swmckewonOWH) April 29, 2016

So who's right?  Let's look a little closer at few other little tidbits:

Carson Wentz and Jared Goff received a combined three FBS scholarship offers, per 24/7, and are now projected to go 1-2 in the NFL draft.

— Paul Myerberg (@PaulMyerberg) April 20, 2016

Let's look at Michigan State, who's 2011 recruiting class was ranked 32nd nationally and 2012 class was ranked 33rd...and had an unranked player (Jack Conklin) get drafted with the eighth pick overall.  Five Spartans were drafted this season alone.

Let's look at Texas, with top three recruiting classes from 2010 through 2012.  Six Texas Longhorns have been drafted the last three seasons COMBINED.

So is it the REALLY the Jimmies and the Joes?  To some extent, yes.  But I personally subscribe to the theory that coaching plays a bigger factor.  And let me be a little more specific:  some coaches simply do a better job of evaluating prospects than others, and then do a better job of developing them. Recruitniks do track on this a bit, as players targeted by recognized successful coaches do get a boost in their star rankings. But it is clear that some coaches (i.e Nick Saban) do a better job of selecting top notch talent and developing it than other coaches (i.e. Mack Brown).

And coaches like Mark Dantonio do a better job of selecting not-so-highly-regarded high school talent and transforming it into talented college players.  Want another example of the converse?  How about our old friend Bill Callahan, who landed highly ranked recruits, only to get fired after four seasons because his teams weren't very good.

Today, some people want to transfer most of the credit for Bo Pelini's early success at Nebraska to Callahan's recruits.  They may have a point, but it's mitigated because of the way Callahan's players failed with him on the sidelines.

I'm not going to tell you that recruiting isn't important - it is.  But it takes more than highly ranked recruiting classes to win.  Recruitniks will point to Alabama, Florida State and Clemson as proof of the power of recruiting, but they miss the point.  I'm pointing towards the head coaches of those programs as the reason for their success.  Why do Alabama, Florida State, Clemson and Michigan State win?

It's because of their coaches.  They do a great job of selecting players and developing them into a team.

Why are teams like Texas so inconsistent?  It's because of their coaching.  Sometimes they guess right on their recruiting and do enough development to win games.  Sometimes they guess wrong, and fail miserably.

It takes both.  But it's not enough to just recruit four and five star players coming out of high school.  You have to identify players who can become stars down the line.  They may start out as five star high school players --- or start out as unknown players, like Jack Conklin or Carson Wentz.  Or Andy Janovich, for that matter.  It takes both, but it starts with coaching.