I Stand Behind My D+ Grade for the Huskers Against Fresno State

I spent a lot of time Saturday night and Sunday deliberating how to grade Nebraska's performance against Fresno State for CornNation.  The offense was inconsistent all night, and the defense couldn't get off the field. It was a win, but it was a win against an opponent who Nebraska should have handled better than they did. If it wasn't for some big plays by the youngsters, it was a game Nebraska easily could have lost. So I gave the team a D- on the game. Yes, it was a win...but it wasn't a good performance.

Almost immediately, someone at the Big Red Network chimed in on Twitter: "They won though right?"  Kind of silly, if you ask me. Most Husker fans knew that Nebraska beat Fresno State. Most also know that Nebraska didn't play well. That was followed up by "room for improvement obviously. But i'd hate to see your grade if they lost. :)" Well, I'd hate to see Nebraska lose to Fresno, but if they did, I think most fans wouldn't have a problem giving Nebraska an F for the game.  Heck, in 2007, I gave the entire defense a zero against Kansas. It concluded with "maybe I'm hung up on the D grade. Coaches always need to push for improvement. Just seems harsh coming from fans."

My perspective is that while I'm a fan, I call it like I see it. That's where the title "Blasphemy" comes from here...saying things that may not be what fans want to hear. But there is no sugar coating the way Nebraska played on Saturday. It wasn't a good performance.  And you know what, Bo Pelini feels the same way:

"We did not execute. We didn't execute, we didn't play well and anything else is an excuse. Plain and simple. We didn't play well. It had a lot to do with us, and that will get fixed. We know how to fix that." 

My guess is that far worse things have been said inside of the North Stadium offices over the last 48 hours, so it really doesn't matter what some blogger says on the internet. I'm not throwing in the towel on this season either: just because Nebraska hasn't played well in the first two games doesn't mean that the season is over or that Nebraska is going 5-7 again. It all comes down to how the coaches and players respond to the mistakes they've made. Survive, advance, and improve.

BlogPoll Ballot: Moving the Huskers Down to #17

One of the fundamental premises of this blog was to say what I think, no matter whether people like it or not. Hence "Blasphemy" in the title. During the Bill Callahan era, Blasphemy was what I espoused until everything collapsed in the fall of 2007. Since then, I haven't been so contrarian. There wasn't much of a reason...but my ballot for this week's BlogPoll might be viewed that way.

At halftime on Saturday, I seriously began questioning whether Nebraska even deserved to be rated at this point. A relatively better performance in the second half eliminated the question of not rating the Big Red, but still, Nebraska does not look like a Top Ten team at this point.  I'm not sure they look like a Top 20 team either...but as I looked around for teams to move ahead of Nebraska, I stopped at #17 because I ran out of teams that I felt I could rank above the Huskers.  Ohio State struggled more with Toledo on Saturday. South Florida came close, but I wasn't ready to do that. And I don't believe in Texas A&M at this point either.

So #17 is where Nebraska lands. It's early in the season, and I think Nebraska has Top Ten potential. They just aren't playing that way.  So down they go for now.

Husker Mike's Blasphemy Ballot - Week 3

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Oklahoma Sooners	--
2	LSU Tigers	--
3	Alabama Crimson Tide	--
4	Boise St. Broncos	--
5	Stanford Cardinal	--
6	Wisconsin Badgers	--
7	Florida St. Seminoles	2
8	Virginia Tech Hokies	-1
9	South Carolina Gamecocks	-1
10	Arkansas Razorbacks	2
11	Florida Gators	2
12	Michigan Wolverines	4
13	Baylor Bears	4
14	Oregon Ducks	--
15	Oklahoma St. Cowboys	3
16	Michigan St. Spartans	3
17	Nebraska Cornhuskers	-6
18	Ohio St. Buckeyes	-8
19	West Virginia Mountaineers	3
20	South Florida Bulls	4
21	Texas A&M Aggies	--
22	TCU Horned Frogs	1
23	Auburn Tigers	--
24	Tennessee Volunteers	--
25	Texas Longhorns	--
Dropouts: Mississippi St. Bulldogs, BYU Cougars, Missouri Tigers, Georgia Bulldogs

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Against Fresno State, The Kids are Alright

Nebraska's 42-29 victory over Fresno State was far from a thing of beauty. For the second week in a row, the offense was a muddled mess and this week, the defense sprung a leak. Aside from a couple of long Taylor Martinez runs, the Huskers spent most of the first half in neutral.  And Martinez had his own troubles with two fumbles and a bad interception in that same time frame. But near the end of the first half, Tim Beck finally opened up the offense and threw deep to try and loosen up the Fresno defense...and Nebraska's young receivers came through.  Kenny Bell caught a deep pass late in the first half, and Jamal Turner added a couple of really nice catches in the second half.

But Nebraska couldn't sustain any drives on the ground for the most part today until late in the game. Defenses stacking the box is the problem, but even so, the Husker offensive line needs to open up more holes. And this week, the defensive line struggled. That's something that surprised...and really, really disappointed me. Last week, Fresno's line was a sieve, but tonight, they overpowered the defense - especially in the second half as Fresno's Robbie Rouse was typically three yards downfield before the Blackshirts could lay a hand on him. That's an ominous sign for next month, as I've seen comparisons between Fresno's offensive line and the lines we'll see in October and November. Fortunately in his postgame comments, Bo Pelini expressed his displeasure with the play. He knows his players must play better, and his reaction indicates that they can play much better.

I really couldn't put my finger on the problem tonight except it was all over the field. The secondary let Fresno receivers get deep twice tonight, though the Bulldogs only took advantage once.  Justin Blatchford is no Eric Hagg, and is a liability as the nickel back. Problem is that Sean Fisher is also struggling...meaning that there isn't a real good solution that's apparent on the field right now.  There's hope that when Alfonzo Dennard returns, Ciante Evans could move into that role.  That might be part of the solution, but that leaves Andrew Green on the field, and while I think he played better tonight, he also seems to be a bit of a liability.  With Daimion Stafford taking over at safety, I wonder if Courtney Osborne isn't a better option here.

Knowing Bo Pelini's history, I'm not terribly worried about the defense. He'll get this figured out. I'm becoming more and more concerned about the offense. It's not like there aren't some young playmakers to turbocharge this offense:  Jamal Turner and Kenny Bell made big plays tonight. Ameer Abdullah wowed everybody with his 100 yard kickoff return. And Martinez had some huge runs today.  So why does this offense continue to struggle? I think it comes down again to the offensive line.  This is a young line, with two sophomores and a true freshman starting...but they have to get better and quickly.

Until then, Martinez is going to have to throw more. In the second half, Martinez was much more productive throwing the ball. I wish I knew what happened to Brandon Kinnie. Kinnie developed into a clutch receiver last year, but this season, he's become a liability. It's almost like Ted Gilmore sabotaged him on his way out to USC. If this continues much longer, look for Kinnie to get the Menelik Holt treatment. Quincy Enunwa, Turner, Bell, and even Tim Marlowe are all outplaying Kinnie at this point.  Martinez's arm motion still looks unorthodox, but he delivered in the second half when Nebraska needed it.

One definite positive to take away from tonight's game is how Rex Burkhead ran late in the fourth quarter when we needed to run time off the clock. Fresno knew what was coming, and really couldn't stop it... and in that situation, could get away with stacking the box much more than they could earlier in the game. Maybe the line turned the corner late.

All told, it was a win, but it's not a win that gives you a lot of confidence that this team is ready to compete in the Big Ten in October and November. We saw a few flashes of potential in the second half, but those flashes must become more consistent over the next couple of weeks.

Big XII Implosion: "There, But For The Grace of Tom Osborne, Goes Nebraska"

You really have to try hard to NOT pay attention to the full-contact, metal-jacket-required, family feud between the remaining Big XII teams. Aside from the actual games, it's shaking the foundations of college football as the ridiculous soap opera keeps finding new ways to jump the shark. It's kind of like narrowly missing a huge accident, then watching the flaming wreckage in the rear view mirror.  And it's not just Nebraska fans...it's just about EVERYBODY in college football.  It was the lead story on BTN tonight. It's the lead story everywhere. The only people not paying attention? The people who are so scared of what could happen that they are hiding in the closet, fingers in the ears, singing "Lalalalala! I can't hear you! Lalalalala!" at the top of their lungs trying to avoid dealing with reality.

It's breathtaking how fast this situation has spiraled out of control.  In June, Berry Tramel of the Daily Oklahoman tried to tell us ten weeks ago that everything was "lovey dovey" in the Big XII without Nebraska. I thought that was revisionist thinking then, and now I bet that Tramel wants that column back in the worst way.

Can the Big XII be salvaged?  One year ago, I didn't think it could. Then the Pac-12 and Big Ten turned down the Longhorn Network concept, and I realized that Texas has no place to go. Since then, I've felt that the Big XII would survive in some form.  A&M was likely a goner.  Oklahoma or Missouri might follow as well, creating a new Big Eight conference.  In recent days, the talk is that Texas is going to leave for the Pac-12 or ACC, which seems to be silly talk to me.  No way those conferences accept the deal Texas has with ESPN for the Longhorn Network. And frankly, I'm not sure how many conferences want to accept Texas as a member. Texas has been exposed for what they are. Everybody knows how Texas plays with others. Who's going to accept Texas as a member without severe restrictions and guidelines on how the conference will be run? And would Texas even consider joining a conference with such an arrangement anyway?

But with threats of lawsuits running rampant, how can this conference realistically survive? Who wants to join the Big XII now? It's damaged goods now.

And thankfully, it's not our problem now. In 2010 when conference realignment speculation was running rampant, there was a concern that Nebraska would be left behind.  Thankfully, Tom Osborne took it seriously at the time and deftly steered Nebraska out of the quagmire. If there ever was any doubt about the wisdom of Nebraska's move, it's gone now. One could make the argument that the Big XII was a solid football and decent basketball conference, and that switching to the Big Ten might be a step back. But that was never the point about Nebraska's move to the Big Ten. It was a desire for stability, and for that, Nebraska fans are forever grateful that the Huskers aren't part of this mess.

2011 Blogpoll Ballot after Week One

These early week polls are more than a guess than anything. I purposely did not submit a preseason ballot because I think these ballots should be based on some sort of substance. But we're guessing as to how strong the opponents are, so it's still a work in progress.  But here's my initial ballot:

Husker Mike's Blasphemy Ballot - Week 2

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Oklahoma Sooners	--
2	LSU Tigers	--
3	Alabama Crimson Tide	--
4	Boise St. Broncos	--
5	Stanford Cardinal	--
6	Wisconsin Badgers	--
7	Virginia Tech Hokies	--
8	South Carolina Gamecocks	--
9	Florida St. Seminoles	--
10	Ohio St. Buckeyes	--
11	Nebraska Cornhuskers	--
12	Arkansas Razorbacks	--
13	Florida Gators	--
14	Mississippi St. Bulldogs	--
15	BYU Cougars	--
16	Michigan Wolverines	--
17	Baylor Bears	--
18	Oklahoma St. Cowboys	--
19	Michigan St. Spartans	--
20	Missouri Tigers	--
21	Texas A&M Aggies	--
22	West Virginia Mountaineers	--
23	TCU Horned Frogs	--
24	South Florida Bulls	--
25	Georgia Bulldogs	--

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Now I'll justify those things that probably will seem out of whack with the "common wisdom" in the polls. Wisconsin looked impressive, as did Stanford in games against overmatched opponents.  So they go up in the rankings. The rest is kind of a "where do I think they fall after week 1". I thought Ohio State had a decent performance in week one, so they end up in my top 10. Michigan also looked impressive in a rain shortened game, comparatively speaking to what others did.  So I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt and putting them at #16.

I'm sure Baylor at #16 is going to raise eyebrows...but if TCU was considered a top 15 team preseason, then I have to give the Bears credit for a big win. And frankly, we're talking Baylor here. How often do we get a chance to recognize the Bears?  So I'm adding them to the polls now and see where things go from here. I've long been impressed with Robert Griffin, and am glad that Nebraska doesn't have to face him on the schedule anymore.

I think Oklahoma State and Texas A&M are both severely overrated in the polls, and so I'm putting them closer to where I think they belong.  A&M especially; sure they blew out SMU on the scoreboard, but that was due to horrible unforced errors by the SMU quarterback to open the game. 

A Little Bit of Good, A Little Bit of Bad against Chattanooga

Right from the opening kickoff, you could see this was going to be a sloppy performance for the Huskers. Failure to field the opening pooch kickoff was one of those little things that hampered Nebraska the whole day. But for the most part, the Blackshirts made sure that no matter what happened today, Nebraska was never really in danger of losing to a 1-AA opponent.

Bo Pelini hinted that we'd see some traditional option as part of the new Nebraska offense, and we saw enough of it that had to make option-haters cringe. (It'll be interesting to see if the "No Option" flag that has flown in the booster parking lot behind the post office since 2004 will still fly next week...) At times, the option looked really rusty, as if it had been retired for seven years.  Other times, like on that first quarter pitch to Rex Burkhead, it looked like a thing of beauty.  And deep down, I absolutely loved that fourth down short-side option that ended 43 yards later in the end zone.  Why do you run options to the short side of the field?  It's very simple: usually there are fewer defenders there and less opportunity to have the play strung out.

The new offense was stymied by a rather ineffective performance by the offensive line. I get that Chattanooga stacked the box and clogged the running lanes..but we were talking about an undersized 1-AA opponent and there should have been more of a push.  Yes, it was a young line with true freshman Tyler Moore and sophomores Andrew Rodriquez and Spencer Long taking a lot of snaps...but I'd like to have seen more. But I also get the feeling that Pelini and Tim Beck weren't terribly concerned about it, because we didn't see a lot of subsitutions. That tells me that the coaching staff wanted to see these players play through the adversity, rather than trying to find different combinations.

I thought Taylor Martinez looked OK today, though I get the feeling that opinions about Martinez are all over the board. I think Martinez's passing motion has become a little more consistent, but he still doesn't step into his throws.  He gunned the ball into receivers all day, and while the accuracy was better than we've seen, the receivers couldn't handle those fastballs downfield at times.  Certainly the speed was back, and frankly, I think he looked more comfortable in this system than he did the last part of last season.

The secondary looked like they missed Alfonzo Dennard at times, especially when they lost containment on Joel Bradford, the Mocs 1-AA All-American receiver. Andrew Green seemed to give him a huge cushion at times, and at other times, nickel back Justin Blatchford couldn't keep up with him.

That was the bad, now let's look at the positives.  Brett Maher looks like he'll be a more than adequate replacement for Alex Henery. Henery has been oh-so-clutch the last three years, but Maher might have been even better today.  His first punt tilted the field and made up for the bungled opening kickoff...then he went and averaged 52 yards a punt on the day.  Perfect on field goals as well, including a 50 yarder into the wind.

Cameron Meredith looked like an all-American candidate at defensive end, and teamed up with Jared Crick on an interception early in the third quarter. Junior college transfer Daimion Stafford had a couple of highlight reel tackles.  He brings the wood like his predecessor who wore #3 in the secondary, Rickey Thenarse, but he seems to be much more consistent in his game.  Keep an eye on this guy: he might be the guy to fill that Dejon Gomes role in October.

Ameer Abdullah looks like he's going to be a gamebreaker as well. The struggles up front didn't allow him to do much in the rushing game, but he was electric on punt returns. He would have scored if only for the tackle teammate P.J. Smith laid on him in the fourth quarter.

And the no-huddle speed-up offense didn't lead to more penalties:  only three for 33 yards on the day.  And one of those was a completely absurd "roughing" the passer call on Josh Williams.

All told, I'm not sure what to take out of today's game.  It's a win: just ask Oregon State how a loss to Sacramento State fells. Eastern Washington nearly took out Washington, and Iowa State needed a last-second comeback to handle Northern Iowa.  It's a season opener, and you have to expect a few mistakes. I don't know how much of the "new offense" we saw today; it's obvious that execution really has to improve. We really didn't see much out of Jamal Turner until late in the game, and he gave us another hint that his performance in the spring game wasn't an aberration. I guess if it's possible to be unhappy after a 40-7 victory, I'll take that.

Prelude to the 2011 Husker Season

I admit it, I'm not a fan of college football on Labor Day weekend...especially games like Chattanooga, Maine, or some other money game against an mismatched foe. At best, it's an opportunity to put on the Husker red, tailgate, and watch the marching band.  All for the nominal (!) charge of $56 a person. Will it be a competitive game? I certainly hope not. And on Labor Day weekend, it just seems like such a waste of the last good-weather long weekend of the year. The weather is nice enough to do just about anything, so it seems to be a waste of a good long weekend to schedule a bad football game on it. The NFL kind of gets it:  most teams held their final preseason game last night, leaving the weekend wide open for their fans.

That's why I haven't been so hyped about the start of the football season yesterday.  Wisconsin/UNLV?  Yawn. Oklahoma/Tulsa? Zzzz.   About the only games worth it are Boise State/Georgia and Oregon/LSU.  The Husker/Chattanooga game?  Well, I'll be there, but I'm not all that hyped up for it.  In fact, my excitement factor was about 0 until yesterday when Kevin Kugler and Mike'l Severe put together a nice package of highlights that at least got me pumped up about football in general.

There are some things to keep an eye on tomorrow, even if the game turns out to be the mismatch it's supposed to be.  Here are the areas I want to keep an eye on against Chattanooga:

Offensive Line. I'm less concerned about the push, especially against an opponent like Chattanooga. Instead, I want to see who plays and the rotation.  Depth has been a huge issue in recent years, so I'd like to see a good rotation develop where if someone is tired or injured, someone else can step in.  That was the key of championship programs in the 90's, and I'd like to see it happen again. (And Tyler Moore certainly looks intriguing, though I don't know if Chattanooga is going to give us much of an opportunity to evaluate his performance...)

Secondary:  With Alfonzo Dennard out, there will three new starters back there....with a pro-style quarterback who was a big time recruit for Tennessee.  I don't know how much time B.J. Coleman is going to have to find his all-American buddy Joel Bradford, but I'd like to see how the new guys handle a pretty good receiver.

Wide Receiver:  I've been completely unimpressed with Ted Gilmore's group; at times, his receivers couldn't catch a cold in the middle of winter with a bunch of preschoolers. But guys like Jamal Turner, Kenny Bell, and Stanley Jean-Baptiste look like the type of game breakers we haven't seen at Nebraska in some time.

Backup I-Backs.  Nebraska is unproven behind Rex Burkhead.  Somebody has to jump out from the pack of Aaron Green, Braylon Heard, or Ameer Abdullah.  I don't know who it'll be, and it could be all three for all I know. But I want to see these guys in action.

Taylor Martinez from the chest up:  We all know about his running ability.  What I want to see is his development in making decisions and throwing the ball.  I'll forgive some of his shortcomings last season: he was a freshman and played injured the last half of the season. Now it's time to take his game to the next level.  The talk is fine, but now it's time to walk the walk.  I think he'll be better this season, so now let's see it.

In some respects, this Chattanooga game is like a bad opening act to a big concert. Lots of things to look forward this season, especially in October when the Huskers line up against the defending co-champions of the Big Ten. That's something to get really excited about. But tomorrow is simply a preseason exhibition game that's a lose-lose situation.  If you win big, it's because you played a mismatched foe.  If you don't win big or show any flaws, people jump on that. (See Wisconsin's defense last night against UNLV.)  And if you somehow DON'T win (can you say Appalachian State?), the season derails before it even got started.

One Year at BFE Doesn't Prove Me Wrong

Yesterday afternoon, KOZN (1620 AM) radio's Kevin Kugler referred to naysayers about Sarpy County's boondoggle as being wrong and deserving of an "I told you so!" Well, I was wrong on some aspects of the situation...but I'm not wrong that the Trailer Park was a poor investment of government resources.

What was I wrong about? Well, I didn't think they could build the ballpark, and they did.  In fact, despite some cost overruns, it seems that my criticisms that it was being built too cheaply were overreactions. It's hard to find a negative word about the Trailer Park; everybody seems to think it was well designed and built. It's exactly what the Golden Royal Spike Chasers or whatchamacallits  needed. So in that respect, I was dead wrong.

Traffic problems haven't been nearly as bad as I expected, though parking has been a concern. So I'm kind of wrong there.

But for all of the talk about the "huge crowds" that showed up at the Trailer Park, average attendance through last night was up 14 fans a night compared to last season (averaging 5902 for 2011 vs 5888 for 2010). That's an improvement, right?  Well, maybe. Keep in mind the average new ballpark increases attendance by 25% in that first season...and it's downhill from there. Everybody wants to come out and see the new ballpark. The Trailer Park never even came close to a 25% increase..in fact, depending on the final night's attendance, it may not even top .25% (one quarter of one percent)!!

And let's not forget either that Sarpy County hasn't disclosed how they are going to pay the mortgage out at the trailer park.  Rent from the Whatchamacallits is probably going to account for about a third of the mortgage payment; hotel tax revenue (much of which is being redirected from other uses) and other stadium revenues probably will account for another third. But the rest (and the budget hole the redirected hotel taxes created) of the bill is still unexplained.

There's always the hope that the "Pennant Place" development will take off, but nothing has been announced since last winter, and even then, local real estate experts think that's still five to seven years off.

When you consider that the bills in Sarpy County haven't even begun to be paid off and the meager increase in attendance, it's clear that calling me wrong is premature at best.  Let's check back in a few more years...

Previewing the 2011 Huskers

After finishing up my 2011 opponent previews for CornNation, I realized I hadn't "closed the loop" with some thoughts on Nebraska this season. My personal take is that after reviewing everybody on Nebraska's schedule, I'm more optimistic about Nebraska's chances this year. That being said, this year is much more of a case of prognostication because there simply aren't many opportunities for direct comparison between a Big XII and a Big Ten schedule.  So here are the baseline assumptions I make about Nebraska this season.

At quarterback, most pundits throw Taylor Martinez into a list of potential Heisman candidates. Obviously, they think the "real" Martinez is the one that we saw the first two months of the season. Was he inconsistent at times? Absolutely.  He was also a freshman.  Did he play poorly down the stretch? Yes, though let's not forget why: an injury that took away his primary weapon.  If he's healthy and has grown into the role of playing quarterback, he'll definitely be a contender for all sorts of honors.

Rex Burkhead is a solid I-back who rarely made a negative play...but he wasn't the game-breaker that Roy Helu was. Helu's gone, and three freshman will be counted on to fill that role and complement/relieve Burkhead. I'm not a recruiting guy, so I don't know which back it will be...but the law of averages would indicate that one of the three incoming backs should be able to become a solid #2 back. I don't know if it will be Aaron Green, Ameer Abdullah, or Braylon Heard, but I doubt all three will be washouts. And thus, I think the running back position will be as strong, if not stronger, in 2011.

Wide receiver is one of those positions that frustrated me throughout the last few years. How can you run a pro-style West Coast Offense without talented receivers? Frankly, I don't think it was ever a talent problem as much as a coaching problem.  Look at Chris Brooks, who's probably had more of an impact in the NFL than he ever had at Nebraska. I'm reminded of the frustrating drops that plagued the Huskers the last couple of years and resulted in losses to Virginia Tech, Iowa State, and Texas. So needless to say, I'm happy that Ted Gilmore left Lincoln, and am optimistic that Rich Fisher can do better. And after watching Jamal Turner and Kenny Bell in the spring game, I think Nebraska could have more playmakers on the field than ever before. So I'm optimistic here as well.

The injuries on the offensive line continue a sad trend, but I am encouraged with the number of freshmen and sophomores now in a position to start. Depth has been a problem here the last couple of years, but now it seems there is a changing of the guard. Will that mean an improvement up front? Right away, no...but as the season goes on, it will. So again, I'm optimistic here.

On the defensive line, I think this group is going to be as solid as in 2009 as long as everyone stays healthy. Can Eric Martin be the final piece of the puzzle that allows this defense to unleash pure havoc on the Big Ten? If not, is Josh Williams ready to replace Pierre Allen?

At linebacker, a full season of Will Compton can only help this defense deal with the power rushing attacks this season. And 6'6" 235 pound Sean Fisher replacing Eric Hagg might be an even bigger piece of that puzzle. This is one of those big question marks that I have for this season; I'm optimistic that the brothers Pelini have an answer for Big Ten offenses, but until we get to October, we'll never know for sure.

The secondary is my biggest concern going into this season.  Alfonzo Dennard could be an all-American...but only if he's healthy, and we don't really know about how serious his preseason injury is. Ciante Evans looked really good in relief of Dennard against Missouri last season, and really bad against Iowa State the next week. Obviously, whomever lines up to replace Prince Amukamara isn't going to be as productive as the Prince was. Austin Cassidy might have been more consistent than Evans last season, but he won't be as good as Dejon Gomes was last season either. So this secondary shouldn't be as good as Nebraska's was last season. But with Nebraska's move to the Big Ten, being better in the front seven is more important than being better in the secondary.

So what does that mean for 2011?  Here are my thoughts before we ever play a game.

Likely wins: Chattanooga, Wyoming, Minnesota.  If Nebraska can't win these games, it's going to be a long season.
Probable wins:  Fresno State, Washington, Northwestern, Iowa.  Fresno always gives BCS teams quite a tussle; Nebraska can't afford to ignore this one.  Nebraska mistakes with turnovers and poor play doomed the Huskers in the Holiday Bowl; I expect Nebraska to be ready to play for this one.  Northwestern is a solid team, but they were too dependent on Dan Persa last season, and while Persa will play, it's unlikely his Achilles will allow him to be the same playmaker he was last season.  2011 will be a rebuilding season for Iowa; too many holes all over the roster except on the offensive line.

Tough games:  Wisconsin, Ohio State, Michigan State, Penn State, Michigan.  Three of these are on the road, and I think Nebraska probably loses two of those.  Wisconsin looks to be the equal of Nebraska for the most part, and with the game in Camp Randall, I think Nebraska probably ends up on the short side here. I also think Nebraska probably drops one of those road games in November...probably at Michigan, as I think the Weasels could be well on the road back to relevance by then.  Ohio State has plenty of talent, but I think they have a few question marks that need to be solved. I think the Huskers win a close one here.  The matchup of Michigan State and Nebraska seems to favor the Huskers, so while the Spartans will challenge Nebraska in the Big Ten's west division, I don't think it'll be as big of a challenge on the field. Penn State probably will be a tough game as well, though I think Nebraska wins that one as well.

So my math puts Nebraska at 10-2, and likely in Indianapolis to play Wisconsin again. On a neutral field, this one looks like a barnburner and frankly, a toss-up.  I'll weasel out and not pick a B1G champion, except to say that both teams end up in BCS bowl games.

To review my past predictions, I predicted 11-1 last season and 8-4 in 2009.  I predicted 9-3 for 2008, missing it by one game. I didn't see the 2007 meltdown coming, predicting 10-3 instead. I did nail 2006 by predicting a 9-3 regular season and a Big XII North championsihp. I was one game off in 2005 as well, predicting 8-3 in the regular season.  Your predictions?

Top Ten for Nebraska Is About As Good of A Guess As Any

Personally, I think preseason polls are meaningless and actually counterproductive in the grand scheme of trying to rank teams as the season goes forward. Meaningless because it's just a guess. Every team has questions, and plus, there's a few idiots around there who think that because Team X finished last season #1, they should begin the next season #1 because nobody has beaten them. Nobody in the AP poll did that, probably because they didn't want to get the "Cam Newton is in Charlotte, dumba*" response...but I'm sure somebody gave it serious thought.

It's also counterproductive because, right-or-wrong, these preseason rankings become the baseline for the first week's rankings and then every week after that. So right now, I'm thinking about abstaining from the preseason BlogPoll for this season.  But that doesn't change the fact that the AP poll came out yesterday with Nebraska at #10.  Some people think that's too high.  I'm not sure I see that, mostly because rankings are not something that you can look at abstractly.  Rankings are relative based on the other teams they are being ranked with.

If Nebraska is ranked "too high" at #10, I'd like to know who should be ranked ahead of Nebraska. Looking over the rankings, I'm struggling to find too many teams in the second ten that should get moved against Nebraska.  Wisconsin is the obvious candidate; and if I were submitting a ballot, I'd probably list them ahead of Nebraska.  But anybody else? Virginia Tech and TCU are breaking in new quarterbacks. Notre Dame?  Really?  South Carolina? They certainly got thumped badly at the end of last season.

And frankly, I've got a few issues with some teams ahead of Nebraska.  Texas A&M ranked eighth?  C'mon. Nebraska played horrible that night last season in College Station, and even A&M fans recognize that Nebraska got hozed in that game.  Oklahoma State ranked ninth?  Florida State ranked sixth?  Stanford ranked seventh with a new coach and only 11 returning starters?  I think you can make a better case that Nebraska is ranked too low than too high.

Did Nebraska finish the season on a two game losing streak?  Yes..but let's not forget that one of those losses was to Oklahoma...and oh, look.  Guess who's #1.  With an injured freshman quarterback, Nebraska couldn't hold onto a 17-0 lead. But some will point out how poorly that quarterback played under pressure late in the season.  Good point, but let's remember another freshman quarterback from, oh, say 2009.  Came into Lincoln and threw FIVE interceptions.  That Landry Jones, what a bum, right?  Um...er... now he's a consensus Heisman candidate.

Is Nebraska a top ten team?  I don't know, but in August 2011, they look more like a top ten team than a lot of other teams. It really doesn't matter, because these rankings are based on pure speculation. We're less than two weeks away from real football, and we finally can set aside speculation and look at real performance on the field. Once that happens, we'll have a better idea if Nebraska is a contender, pretender, or a fraud.

Thursday Night Beer: How About a "Baylor" for Miami

In the wake of Yahoo's stunning expose of Miami's nightmare of illicit benefits to 72 players, it seems that the only question that remains is whether the NCAA will impose the death penalty on Miami. Ever since SMU football was shut down for a year in the 80's, it's been assumed that the NCAA would never impose that penalty again because it was so severe. I haven't completely read Charles Robinson's report in it's entirety yet, so I won't draw a conclusion on the degree of Miami's guilt yet...but I will suggest that a full shutdown of the Miami program might not be necessary. Look at Baylor basketball:  after the Dave Bliss scandal (one player murdering another while other players received cash and drugs), Baylor didn't get the death penalty. Instead, they were forced to give up scholarships and not play any non-conference games in a season.

There are numerous ways to penalize a football program:  take away scholarships, home games, or television appearances. Maybe a combination of it all. You don't necessarily have to completely shut it down. Of course, this is something Nebraska needs to keep an eye on because the Hurricanes are on the schedule in 2014 and 2015. Will Miami still even be able to play in those seasons?  If they are still allowed to play, they very well could be penalized so severely that Miami-Ohio could be a much stronger team. That's not what Nebraska signed up for as a non-conference foe.

UNO announced today that they'll hold "Homecoming" prior to the October 1st exhibition hockey game against British Columbia. I've got mixed thoughts on this.  On one hand, it helps keep the tradition going without football, and it might improve attendance at a traditionally poorly attended exhibition game.  But let's not forget what's happening simultaneously with that exhibition game:  Nebraska's first Big Ten football game against Wisconsin. So let's not kid ourselves: only a few UNO die-hards will be attending the hockey game that night, even with "homecoming".  If UNO really wanted to do homecoming right, I'd suggest doing it Thanksgiving weekend, perhaps on Sunday afternoon with the St. Cloud State series.

When I heard the reports of two separate disasters at outdoor concerts this week (one at the Indiana State Fair and the other in Belgium), I was reminded of the stupid "Ameritragedy" gag that a few bored media members organized after a storm caused a delay in the College World Series.  I remember the complaints "it was just wind"... well, this week we saw what could happen when high winds hit an outdoor event. Was it an overreaction to the June storm, which turned out to not be quite as strong as originally thought? Yes, but a necessary overreaction.  I bet the organizers of the Indiana State Fair wish they had overreacted last Saturday night.

Remember last month when Big XII Commissioner Dan Beebe declared that "no more than one live football game will be televised on any institutional network and no high school content will be televised on a branded member's network"?  Well, Texas and ESPN are ignoring Beebe, declaring once again that the Longhorn Network will televise a second game anyway, according to Kirk Bohls of the Austin American-Statesman. Oh, and "highlights" of high school games as well. Why stop there? Why not just announce that DeLoss Dodds is now the de-facto Big XII Commissioner or move Beebe into the Texas athletic department offices. Meanwhile, now it appears that LHN will try to televise the Bovines' game against either Kansas or Kansas State. If it's K-State, the game would appear on KSU's new online network as well.

A Red Letter Day

August 15th promises to be a red letter day on a couple of different fronts. Tomorrow afternoon, the Board of Regents for Texas A&M will meet to authorize Aggie President R. Bowen Loftin to pursue a new conference for Texas A&M. But wait, didn't the SEC reject Texas A&M?  Hardly. People jumped on the first line of the SEC statement and didn't read the rest.

“The SEC Presidents and Chancellors met today and reaffirmed our satisfaction with the present 12 institutional alignment."

I admit, the first time I read this, I thought this was a big "no" to A&M. Then I read it again. It's simply saying that "we're fine with 12". It says nothing about increasing membership to 13 or 14.

"We recognize, however, that future conditions may make it advantageous to expand the number of institutions in the league."

What's the definition of "future"? Well, tomorrow is the future.  In other words, we're open to adding institutions, as the situation evolves.  This is looking less and less like a "no".

"We discussed criteria and process associated with expansion."

If you aren't looking to expand, what do you you need "criteria" for? Or a "process associated with expansion"? The only reason you need a "process associated with expansion" is because you are looking hard at expansion.

"No action was taken with respect to any institution including Texas A&M.”

Wow...they actually named Texas A&M.  And note that they specifically said "No action was taken": that's definitely not a no.  It's not a yes, mind you. But it's anything but a no.

What does this mean? Simple. The SEC is proceeding cautiously for fear of lawsuits. They do not want their fingerprints on the first domino of the next round of college realignment.  Texas A&M will have to ask to join the SEC, and the SEC's announcement merely says that they are ready to talk to A&M. The condition for A&M is likely a decision to leave the Big XII first. And yes, look for A&M to look to Harvey Perlman for inspiration to lay the foundation to defend against the inevitable lawsuit from the Big XII. (Outkick the Coverage has a great read on the complications of this arrangement.) How much of this happens tomorrow, and how much of this happens once everything is finalized remains to be seen. My guess is much of the foundation needs to be set tomorrow, though.

Oh, and then tomorrow night, we'll finally learn whether Bubba Starling is going to be a Husker or a Royal. It's something that we probably won't hear about until late...maybe not until the next morning. I'm not quite as sold on Starling remaining in Lincoln as Steve Sipple seems to be (I recall him suggesting that it's a 30% chance he stays), but I don't assume that he's automatically gone either. The negotiations really start tomorrow night, and it comes down to how badly Starling wants to play for his hometown team.

Nighthawks Will Play in 2011

It was good news for Omaha when the UFL announced that the league would play, albeit with a reduced schedule in 2011. The Omaha Nighthawks caught the attention of sports fans around the area and even attracted some national attention when they sold out all four games last season. We all know the financial problems the league faces; last season, the UFL hemorrhaged money like a Kevin Cosgrove defense hemorrhages yards and points.  So now the league is down to four teams, with Virginia replacing Orlando and Hartford shutting down.

I'm not 100% sure why the UFL chose to go with a 6 game schedule. I understand the desire to have a balanced schedule where each team plays the other home-and-away, but maintaining the eight game schedule keeps the existing ticket plans unchanged and would increase revenue.  Certainly you know that cutting that game likely will cost the Omaha franchise at least $500,000 in ticket sales.  Maybe more.  Yes, it would be unbalanced, but the  UFL is fighting for it's financial survival.

That survival likely will only come with some sort of investment by the NFL. I do think that the UFL adds value to the NFL.  The NFL really is the only major professional sport that doesn't have a minor league system. People like to say that college football is the developmental arm, but so many players struggle making the transition in their early years.  The UFL could fill that need, and likewise help skill players develop faster. Likewise, it's also a source of replacements who are in football shape and ready to contribute when an NFL player is injured.

UFL games could also be of value to the NFL Network, which already televises Arena League games as well as Canadian games. ESPN has long realized that football - any football - is compelling television. That's why you see MAC games on Tuesday nights during the season.  Football brings ratings.  But is that enough to make the UFL financially viable? There's no way to know.

The surest way to ensure the UFL is not financially viable is for Omaha sports fans to turn their backs on the Nighthawks this season. Sure, we don't know if they'll play in 2012...but they will play in 2011.  Poorly attended games will ensure the leagues demise, and conversely, if the Nighthawks draw well in a futile effort to save the UFL, people will remember that. I have to believe that the Arena League would likely target Omaha knowing how the city supported the Nighthawks.

I look forward to the Nighthawks playing this season and plan to attend at least one game this season. Since we don't have a schedule yet, it's hard to say when, but I found it a fun atmosphere last year. And in the new ballpark downtown, it should be even better.

Peter Gammons Tweets on Bubba and Bo

Earlier this morning, my Twitter feed blew up with retweets and mentions of Peter Gammons' comment about Bo Pelini and Bubba Starling:

Bo Pellini going off on and threatening Bubba Starling is great news for the Royals.

My reaction is the same as nearly every other member of the Nebraska media corps:  What did I miss? What is Peter Gammons talking about?  Did Gammons receive some sort of scoop?  My initial take is: Probably not.  I think it's likely that Gammons heard part of the story of Starling not being on the Nebraska practice roster, misinterpreted it, maybe got a little misinformation as well, then filtered it through the national filter where the prevailing perception is that Bo Pelini is a raving lunatic

And out on Twitter it went, all with the same amount of cross-checking and validation that he spent on Pelini's last name.  (Only one "L", Peter...) Could Gammons be onto something?  Dirk Chatelain gives it some credence, though Sam McKewon got a denial from Starling's father. I personally don't give it much credence because so often I hear national reporters get stories about Nebraska football wrong, which makes me think this might be the case here if we can't get any further substantiation of it. That doesn't mean Gammons is automatically wrong; he's connected to a different set of sources on the baseball beat and may have gotten a good tip.  Those different sources may have also gotten the report wrong as it went through something similar to the telephone game, where one person tells something to somebody else, who repeats it to another, and before long, the story doesn't resemble the original story at all.

If Gammons report is true, it is a damaging report for both Starling and Pelini. I just don't know how accurate it is until Gammons reveals more than 140 characters of the story. And knowing just how wild the rumor mill gets around these parts (see Taylor Martinez "quitting" after the A&M game), if something really did happen, there would have been rumblings. So barring any further information, I'm putting this one in the unsubstantiated rumor bin.  Maybe Bob Davie's cable guy can make some sense of it.

Sunday Night Dessert: Nebraska Talking National Championship Again?

I found it interesting that nearly every Nebraska player that spoke to the media on Friday mentioned playing for a national championship this season. First thing I thought of was the last time Nebraska players talked this way: four years ago. That was brash talk then for a team that lost the last two games of the previous season, and we all know how THAT ended.  (5-7, worst defense since college football players played both offense and defense, coach and athletic director run out of town on a rail, etc.) That doesn't mean another disaster like that is in store, but by that same manner, I didn't see the 2007 Train Wreck coming either. I do think Nebraska is closer to being in position to play for a title in 2011 than they were in 2007, though by no means should Nebraska be considered a favorite either. I'd argue that last season, Nebraska should or could have won every game. Texas had a losing record, Nebraska had too many penalties and mistakes against Texas A&M and Oklahoma, and frankly didn't show up in San Diego. If Nebraska has found some answers to the self-inflicted errors of last season, don't dismiss title talk coming from Lincoln. Don't buy non-refundable plane tickets to New Orleans for January either, unless you are planning to get an early start on Mardi Gras.

One item that did catch my eye was the discussion of team chemistry and especially Taylor Martinez's role in some of the team building that occurred this summer. Last season, we heard little behind-the-scenes rumblings about Martinez's leadership (or lack thereof). I don't know how much that matters; certainly it's far below the health of Martinez's ankle or his lack of understanding of the offense as a redshirt freshman in terms of importance. But it doesn't hurt either.

Tonight on BTN, I finally got a chance to watch some of the 1995 Rose Bowl between Penn State and Oregon. I freely admit that I never actually watched that game; I was still in Fort Lauderdale, and frankly after being up half the night celebrating Nebraska's victory over Miami in the Orange Bowl, I had absolutely zero interest in watching the game. The sun was shining brightly, the air temperature was 81 and the water temperature wasn't much less than that. Meanwhile back in Omaha, it was about 90 degrees cooler...which made my decision fairly easy. I've felt all along that 1994 Nebraska would probably beat 1994 Penn State fairly easily, probably by two touchdowns. Tonight I saw nothing to change my mind, and in fact, it confirmed my suppositions. Heck, let's not forget that Oregon actually went up in the polls after that game after outgaining the Nittany Lions 501 to 430 yards.

We're down to the final week of the Bubba Starling drama. I know the common wisdom is that this is all a Scott Boras drama designed to extra every last penny the Kansas City Royals have available in their budget. It'll come down to next weekend, and by Tuesday, Starling will be off to Kansas City for a press-conference and then to the minor leagues.  Well, maybe...maybe not. Keep in mind that, in the end, it comes down to what Bubba Starling wants to do. Saying no to the Kansas City Royals is not saying no to a pro baseball career; it's keeping the door open to a career in football. That baseball career will still be there, and the money might be even greater at that time. So it comes down to what Starling wants to do:  football or baseball.  And while Starling has been playing it cool and making it seem that he wants to play football, I get the feeling that Starling's first love is baseball. And so my guess is that Starling isn't long for Lincoln, but that's just that: a guess.  We'll find out for sure on the 16th.

Wednesday Night Beer: More Bodybag Games for the Huskers

I wasn't completely surprised, but still disappointed, to learn that Nebraska had added Arkansas State to the 2012 schedule and South Dakota State to the 2013 schedule. Nebraska's budget is dependent on seven home football games each season, and with four conference home games each season, the Huskers need to play three non-conference games at home. In 2012, Nebraska will travel to UCLA and in 2013, the Huskers return to Southern Miss. So these games were going to be against teams that won't demand a road game in response. 25 or 30 years ago, Nebraska could get schools like Oregon and Oregon State to come to Lincoln without demanding a return trip. 10 years ago, Nebraska could get schools like Wyoming and Colorado State to only play in Lincoln.  Now? Only Sun Belt or 1-AA teams are still willing to take a paycheck without demanding a return trip.

Nebraska is trying to fill out future schedules by agreeing to play 2-for-1 deals with the likes of Fresno State, Wyoming, and Southern Miss, but that only goes so far. And even if a 1-AA team fills the final non-conference opening in 2012, it's still a better schedule than what Nebraska had to play in 2008 and 2009.

I'll admit that I bought into the Nebraska got a tough scheduling break mindset last year when the initial Big Ten schedules were released.  It's hard to argue that the Big Ten went easy on Nebraska: the Huskers only avoid Illinois, Indiana, and Purdue the first two seasons. But I'm starting to realize I overestimated the difficulty of the Huskers schedule. A lot of that is the result of the problems at Ohio State; the Buckeyes would be a lot more formidable if Ohio State still had Terrelle Pryor at quarterback.  But as I've been working through the first four conference games, I'm realizing that I was a little too euphoric over abandoning the sinking ship that is the Big XII that I overestimated the Big Ten. I noticed that Phil Steele rated the Huskers schedule #47, and that raised eyebrows. It finally hit me when I looked at Michigan State.  A good team, to be sure, but one with a lot of holes and doesn't seem to matchup well with Nebraska. And that's the leading contender to Nebraska in the west division of the Big Ten?

Note: that doesn't mean that I've changed my mind about switching conferences, nor does that mean that I suddenly think Nebraska is going to go unchallenged in a putzy conference. It just means that, well, it's starting to look like I overestimated our new conference opponents.

Speaking of changing conferences, Frank the Tank had an enlightening assessment about Texas A&M and the SEC.  Namely, he thinks it's unlikely, and he raises several good points. First, my assumption that expansion would reopen the SEC's television deals with ESPN and CBS appears to be false. So expansion means more teams dividing the same pot. He also illustrates how Texas needs A&M around, much like rock stars need an entourage. I've assumed that Baylor, Tech, and Kansas State would be enough of an entourage...but Frank disagrees.

One thing that will likely lead to Big XII instability down the line is that he sees Texas and ESPN winning the battle over televising high school games. His reasoning is that since Texas doesn't own any part of the Longhorn Network, it's not an NCAA issue. ESPN merely has a contract to televise Texas sporting events, much like ESPN has a contract to televise all sorts of college games. Nobody's had an issue with ESPN carrying high school games in the past, so why would this matter - except that the ESPN channel is named after the Bovines. It's a good point, and not good for Big XII stability...  And before you pooh-pooh Frank the Tank, let's remember he's been spot-on with his analysis up to now on all of these realignment topics.

"Heroes Game" Label Goes Over With a Thud

After several days buildup, Nebraska and Iowa unveiled the name of the newest "trophy game" this morning in Chicago.  The ridicule of the "Heroes Game" designation was immediate and nearly universal. It's almost the same response the Big Ten's "Legends" and "Leaders" concept received. It's a concept that emerged from a corporate boardroom without ever being reviewed with fans. It's a concept that falls flat, and gives credence to critics who discuss the arrogance of the Big Ten.

It's hard to argue with that. It's a lousy name, and totally unnecessary. The "Iowa vs. Nebraska game (presented by Fareway)" doesn't need a trophy before the series really kicks off. It's reminiscent of how the Big XII tried to force a rivalry between Nebraska and Colorado on Thanksgiving weekend. It never went anywhere because (a) Colorado was seemingly bad more often they were good and (b) some Colorado fans acted like complete imbeciles whenever they saw somebody from Nebraska. Tom Osborne and Nebraska know this all too well, which makes it disappointing that they pursued this trophy designation in the first place.

I know the backstory about honoring fans who contribute to their communities, and it's definitely a positive addition to the game. But it's out of place being part of the name of the game, and it has no business being the identifying mark of the game. People will never learn about the reason for the name, and ridicule both programs for considering themselves "heroic".  And a trophy?  Please. Just because 13 other games in the Big Ten have trophies doesn't mean that Nebraska-Iowa have to have a trophy in year one. Someone in the Big Ten conference offices should have reminded both schools about the last artificial trophy.  Michigan State and Penn State play for the oft-ridiculed "Land Grant Trophy", which is ugly and meaningless. I dare say that the Nebraska/Iowa trophy is likely to result in the same result.

A trophy should have meaning, and should naturally result from the rivalry. Doing this now is fake and forced. It's a complete waste of time and effort.  It actually takes away from the series.  It's good that Nebraska and Iowa are going to play an annual series now.

It just royally sucks that somebody is going to insist that it be called the "Heroes Game".  (Which I won't, from here going forward.  It will be the "Iowa vs. Nebraska game, presented by Fareway".  Fareway is an Iowa based grocery chain (like Hy-Vee) that, unlike Hy-Vee, has great prices, great customer service, and a tremendous meat department.  Try their Bratburgers at your next tailgate; it's a bratwurst without a casing that you eat like a hamburger.  Awesome for a tailgate.)

Heroes Game?  Ugh.

Wednesday Night Beer: The Big XII Moves On With Their Infighting

When I read the comments from Gary Pinkel, Bob Stoops, and Tommy Tuberville at this week's Big XII Media Days in Dallas, I have to wonder if Berry Tramel wishes he had never written last month that "as soon as Nebraska went out the door, everyone started getting along swimmingly." I have no doubt that it's inevitable that Texas A&M (and probably Oklahoma) departs for the SEC in the next few years. That being said, I think there is a core group of teams that will remain in the Big XII, as Texas isn't going anywhere now that the Pac-12 has started their own network and won't be interested in allowing Texas to keep the Longhorn Network. Neither will the Big Ten or SEC for that matter.  That means that schools like Baylor, Kansas State, and Iowa State will have a conference home going forward.


I thought Dan Beebe couldn't get any more ridiculous...then he walked to the podium in Dallas as the theme song to "The Natural" plays. Nick Bahe and Matt Schick of KOZN-1620 AM radio suggested some other songs might have been more appropriate, such as Beck's "Loser:
Personally, I think Celine Dion's "My Heart Will Go On" probably fits the Big XII situation better...

Now the attention switches to the Big Ten media days in Chicago. Even though I'm barely only halfway through my opponent previews, I did submit an early ballot to the Big Ten Bloggers and CornNation as to a preseason prediction:

1. Wisconsin
2. Nebraska
3. Michigan State
4. Ohio State
5. Northwestern
6. Penn State
7. Illinois
8. Iowegia
9. Michigan
10. Purdue
11. Minnesota
12. Indiana

Friday morning in Chicago, Tom Osborne and Iowa athletic director Gary Barta will unveil the "trophy" for the new Iowa/Nebraska series. They'll probably call it a "rivalry", but frankly, I'm still trying to spit up the last black-and-gold forced rivalry.  Rivalries simply cannot be created or designated; they evolve over time, on the field. Could Iowa/Nebraska become a rivalry?  Very likely down the line...but it's not a rivalry, and frankly, doesn't really need a trophy either.

Well, maybe they could mock something up from this...

Speaking of Eric Crouch, the future of his comeback with the UFL's Omaha Nighthawks continues to be a bit of a question mark. Reports out of Hartford indicate that the Colonials could be eliminated to streamline the league down to a four-team venture. That might help cut the losses this season, but one would have to wonder what the impact of only playing three games in Omaha this season. I still think the Nighthawks are a viable franchise in Omaha, if they can find a way to keep the league going.  In the end, it'll come down to whether the NFL invests in the league as a development arm.  Without that, I don't know how the UFL survives.

Which would be too bad, because I think the Nighthawks are the best professional sports enterprise for Omaha since the days of the Kansas City/Omaha Kings of the NBA.

As the Stadiums Turn

Last Thursday's Omaha World-Herald reported that attendance for the Omaha Golden Royal Spike Chasing Whatchamacallits is up 2.4% this season over last season's Royals attendance at Rosenblatt. Does that prove the Trailer Park out in BFE Sarpy County wasn't the boondoggle I predicted it would be?  Hardly. A new stadium usually results in an attendance boost of 25%, and the Trailer Park isn't even generating a tenth of the typical bump.

That being said, some of my predictions have proven to be wrong. I thought we'd hear more complaints about the stadium's location, but those have been almost non-existent. The only complaints I've heard have been that there aren't enough parking spaces out at BFE. And my concerns that the stadium was being built on the cheap apparently hasn't resulted in any complaints; the Trailer Park generates compliments from just about everybody who's attended a game.  But even though the stadium has been a success for baseball, does that mean it's a success for the taxpayers who funded the stadium? Again, hardly. Has Sarpy County ever announced how they would pay for the stadium? Other than the $3,000 a year for the county's share of naming rights from Werner and a tax on concessions at the ballpark, it's still pretty murky. Hotel tax revenue is being diverted from other uses to apply towards the ballpark, and the rest is not clear. It really comes down to if the Pennant Place development surrounding the stadium gets built.  The longer that area sits idle, the more that taxpayers have to pick up.

That's not a concern with TD Ameritrade Park downtown, where the stadium funding has been well documented and hasn't really been an issue since the plan was finalized. But now that the College World Series is over, what else can happen at the ball park.  The Nighthawks season is delayed, raising questions as to whether they'll even play this season. I think they'll play this season...and probably sell out games once again. But after that?  Unless the NFL comes to some sort of an agreement with the UFL, if only to broadcast games (like the NFL Network carries Arena and Canadian League games), I just don't know how the UFL plays in 2012.

Next year, it's likely that an independent league team will play downtown. Frankly, that's something I'd like to see.  Is the baseball going to be inferior to AAA baseball?  Absolutely.  But that's not the point of minor league baseball.  If it wasn't, the Whatchamacallits wouldn't run every crazy promotion or gimmick that they can think of.  That sets a high bar for anybody who wants to try to operate an independent league team in a 25,000 seat stadium.

Last week, TD Ameritrade Park hosted the Red Sky Music Festival, which was a mixed bag overall. The rumored acts (U2, Jimmy Buffett, Jay-Z) never materialized, though the country acts that closed out the stadium series drew pretty good crowds. But by setting the stage behind second base, the capacity of the ballpark was about the same as the capacity of the Qwest Center for concerts. In which case, what was the point of holding the concerts outside?  Especially considering the weather concerns and the wear and tear on the field, I just don't see the point in holding those concerts outdoors, other than proving that you could. I always felt that concerts were held outdoors at stadiums to increase attendance...but that wasn't the case last week.

Last week's parking lot concerts drew somewhat sparse crowds to the late afternoon acts, though I have to expect that the promoters expected many more people to show up.  The early afternoon acts drew ... almost nobody.  That shouldn't have been a surprise to anybody:  local acts that very few people have heard of, playing in a parking lot with heat indexes in triple-figures while most people are at work...well, that's a recipe for poor attendance.  I'm also not sure the schedule had any sort of continuity, other than it seemed that Friday's acts were more country than the other days.  Frankly, I think the best thing that Red Sky might have tried would have been to bunch up all of those name acts (Charlie Daniels, Bruce Hornsby, STS-9, George Clinton, Buddy Guy, etc.) on Saturday and at least tried to put on one day of a festival.

In the end, it doesn't matter with respect to the success of the stadium. TD Ameritrade Park was built for the College World Series, and with the national attention and the business that the CWS generates, it was still the right decision. Would it be nice if the stadium were used more? Absolutely. But the lack of other uses for the stadium doesn't make the downtown stadium a mistake.