Friday, June 24, 2016

Still Not a Believer in Mike Riley at Nebraska

I started this blog over eleven years ago primarily because I didn't believe in the head football coach at Nebraska. In the end, I was right about Bill Callahan.

Yay me?

Hardly. It's no fun watching your favorite team lose game after game after game, sometimes horrifically.

I believed in the next guy. But four losses a year (some of them ugly) weren't good enough at Nebraska, so he was sent packing. That's wrong on me, FWIW.
So next is Mike Riley, and once again, I find myself extremely skeptical that he's the right guy for Nebraska. And that skepticism continues to grow, the longer I observe the program.

Riley is a nice guy, and that's not meant as any sort of criticism. But it's also not any sort of qualification to be a college football coach at a school like Nebraska.

When I look at Mike Riley, I see a coach who was failing at Oregon State. Contracts were being reworked to lessen the impact of coaches leaving the program in a year or two. After his Beavers were blown out by Oregon to end the 2014 season, Mike Riley even admitted that his approach had to change.

Then Shawn Eichorst called and offered him an escape to Nebraska. Knowing that his time at Oregon State was coming to an end, it really was an offer he couldn't refuse.

So rather than change his approach to the game, Mike Riley changed ZIP codes and players. He tried to jam his square peg into the round hole of a team he inherited...and failed.

It didn't work at Oregon State and it didn't work at Nebraska either. Some take solace in Riley's failure by saying that he'll be able to attract players to Nebraska to make his system work here. I'll freely admit that MIGHT happen, but I think that's more wishful thinking than anything. The game of football has changed dramatically over the last twenty years as the spread offense has taken over, and Mike Riley has been slow to adapt to it.

Riley received accolades from Husker fans who wax nostalgic about fullbacks and tight ends, especially those that bristled when former offensive coordinator Tim Beck agreed with the assertion that tight ends and fullbacks were becoming obsolete. Here's the thing:  look at the NFL and college football.  Beck is right.  Tight ends and fullbacks are declining in use throughout football for multiple reasons. Andy Janovich wasn't drafted by the Denver Broncos for his value as a fullback; it was for Janovich's value on special teams.  It wasn't that Beck "hated" tight ends; it's merely a recognition of where the game of football is going in this day and age.  And in Mike Riley, I see a coach who doesn't recognize that and doesn't seem open to change.

Mike Riley does what Mike Riley wants to do offensively, damn the situation or the strengths of his team.  Inexplicable losses to Illinois and Purdue.  Even in his best game, the upset of Michigan State, fans chanted in the stadium "RUN THE BALL" in obvious displeasure to what they expected Mike Riley to do.

It is wrong. It's just yet another sign that the wrong coach was hired at Nebraska.

The defenders of Mike Riley point out that all this will work out once he gets players that fit his system into Nebraska, and his recruiting shows that he'll get it done. Well, I've heard that line before.  It didn't work the last time. Will it work this time?  We'll see, but I'm skeptical.

The hype train for Nebraska recruiting in 2016 is eerily reminiscent to 2004, though at least then it was five star recruits, not three-stars driving the train.  (Are recruitniks now agreeing with me that stars don't matter? I kid, I kid...)  For all of the hype, the reality is that Nebraska has 10 commitments in June, which is good. But let's not get carried away. The previous staff (you know, the one who couldn't be bothered with recruiting) had nine recruits in April 2014 before the Spring Game.  Needless to say...I'm not convinced.

What will convince me? Winning.  Show me something tangible on the field that gives me a reason to believe.  Mike Riley gave me seven reasons to not believe in him last season.  Michigan State was good, in the end...and the game plan against UCLA in the Foster Farms Bowl was encouraging, but everybody should know not to put too much faith in bowl game performances.

I'm not rooting against Mike Riley.  I don't want Mike Riley to fail.  I just look at the situation, and don't find a lot to be optimistic about.  It's not just me... Dave Bartoo of the CFBMatrix called him "dead man walking" after showing him at -6 in coaching effect in his 2015 Anti-Coach Effect, for doing the least with more talent and resources.

Mike Riley's a nice guy, and he's doing some nice things off the field. I'd love to like him as Nebraska's head football coach.  I just can't.  I just don't believe Mike Riley will succeed at Nebraska.

I hope I'm wrong.

1 comment:

BD Erickson II said...

I totally agree. Even in hoping I'm wrong.